ATD Truck Beat
Produced by NADA's Industry Analysis division, ATD Truck Beat is a quarterly report on new medium- and heavy-duty truck sales in the United States.
March 2025 ATD Truck Beat: Commercial Truck Sales Down 6.5% In Q1
Commercial truck sales declined year over year through the first quarter of 2025.
Commercial truck sales declined year over year through the first quarter of 2025. Commercial truck sales totaled 105,640 through Q1 2025, a decline of 6.5% compared to the first quarter of 2024. Both medium- and heavy-duty truck sales posted declines. Medium-duty truck sales total 55,013 and heavy-duty truck sales totaled 50,627 in the first three months of the year, representing year-over-year declines of 3.8% and 9.4% respectively.
According to ACT Research, preliminary net new orders for Class 8 trucks totaled 16,000 in March 2025, a decline of 8.3% year over year. Preliminary orders for Class 5-7 trucks were also down significantly in March 2025, ACT Research says. Orders for Class 5-7 trucks in March totaled 18,600 units, a decline of 33% year over year. Trade policy uncertainty and a cooling economic outlook were likely responsible for at least some of the declines on net orders for commercial trucks. High levels of uncertainty stemming from daily changes in trade policies are making it challenging for trucking fleets to make investment decisions for new equipment.
The 25% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum as well as tariffs on imports from the U.S. and Canada will impact new-truck pricing and sales. While there are currently no tariffs on USMCA compliant vehicles from Canada and Mexico, we are certain there will be impacts to commercial truck pricing from the tariffs on parts. As with light-vehicles, components for commercial trucks can cross the Canadian and Mexican borders several times before a final vehicle is delivered to the U.S. It is challenging to estimate the exact impact that these tariffs will have on truck pricing, but OEMs have already said they will be passing on at least some of the costs to consumers through higher prices, according to Transport Topics. Before the tariffs, commercial truck demand had weakened since the start of the year. Given the uncertainty of the current sales environment and the longer the tariffs remain in place, sales forecasts are likely to be reduced further.
