Commercial truck sales in 2023 topped half a million units for the first time since 2019. Sales totaled 507,277 in 2023, up 7.6% from 2022. Sales of medium-duty trucks reached 240,525 in 2023, up 10.8% year over year. And heavy-duty truck sales totaled 266,752 in 2023, an increase of 5% from 2022. Sales of heavy-duty trucks slowed this December compared with a year earlier, with Class 8 truck sales dropping by 19.8%.

According to ACT Research, Class 8 orders in December ended the fourth quarter totaling 26,500, a decline of 12.5% year over year. Class 8 orders cooled in December following a solid month for them in November, when they posted their strongest year-over-year gain since October 2022. Despite recent weakness in freight market orders, truck buyers appear to be somewhat confident in the year ahead and continue to replace aging equipment even if those replacement rates will be a bit below 2023’s stellar performance.

Now that new-truck production has recovered, prices for used Class 8 equipment have returned to a more normal level. According to ACT Research, the average retail price of a Class 8 truck sold in November 2022 was $59,292, down 6.2% from October 2023 and off a whopping 27.4% compared with November 2022’s average retail price of $81,657. November’s average sale price was the first average price below $60,000 since April 2021, ACT Research says.

For 2024, we don’t expect another year of a half-million-plus commercial truck sales. Headwinds for the industry include high interest rates, declining truckload rates and new regulations in California that will severely limit California truck dealers’ ability to sell new Class 8 trucks. Our forecast is for medium-duty truck sales to increase slightly to some 248,000 units, while Class 8 truck sales will likely decline some 20% to around 213,000 units.